Food speculation resources

“It is deeply alarming that the greatest proportion of activity in the futures markets no longer involves those in the supply chain but is, instead, taken up by speculators. Food commodities are too important to be played about with by day traders and speculators”
- President of National Farmers’ Union Scotland

Since we launched the campaign on food speculation in July 2010, we've produced and collected a range of resources on the issue. Here are some of the best.

Introducing the issue

A woman with a basket

How banks cause hunger - Infographic explaining how food speculation works and what can be done about it.

Frequently asked questions - A factsheet that answers all those questions you've ever wanted to ask to understand this campaign. Topics include financial markets, food prices and financial regulations.

Betting on hunger - An 8 page booklet to help to give you an introduction to food speculation: how it impacts the poor, what speculation is and what can be done about it.

Glossary of terms - A jargon busting guide to steer you through all the technical lingo that is associated with financial markets.

Not a game: speculation vs food security - Oxfam briefing showing the problems about food speculation and what can be done to deal with it.

Transforming our food system: the movement for food sovereignty - An introduction to an alternative approach to the food system that's emerging from the global south and how you can help to put it into practice.

Public statements and submissions

Statement by over 100 organisations calling for excessive speculation on food to be curbed - An international call for action from signatories including the Africa Development Interchange Network (Cameroon), Alianza Mexicana por la Autodeterminación de los Pueblos (Mexico) and the Seed Institute (Kenya)

WDM's response to European consultation on financial reform - WDM's consultation response provides detailed analysis and presents an evidence base for regulating excessive speculation on food derivatives.

WDM's response to the high level planel of experts on food security and nutrition consultation on food price volatility.

 

 

Betting on hunger

Banks are earning huge profits from betting on food prices in unregulated financial markets. This creates instability and pushes up global food prices, making poor families around the world go hungry and forcing millions into deeper poverty. It’s time to stop bankers from gambling on hunger.

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Cover of the betting on hunger report

WDM food speculation campaign: Questions and answers

This document answers all your in depth questions about food speculation.

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Glossary of financial jargon

Baffled by 'derivatives'? Do you know your 'over the counter' from your 'hedge'? Food speculation is an issue that can get quite technical but here's our jargon busting glossary which will help steer you around the murky waters of financial markets.

Clearing exchange

A clearing exchange acts as the intermediary between the buyer and seller of a derivatives contract. So instead of the buyer and seller interacting directly, the clearning exchange becomes the buyer to each seller, and the seller to each buyer, of a contract. The clearing entity makes the payments to each side of the deal,
covering the buyer and seller from the risk of the other side defaulting. This in turn provides financial stability by insuring both parties against default.

In contrast, derivative contracts which are sold directly between two parties (see over-thecounter derivatives below) can be defaulted on as either side may not deliver either the goods or the money. It was non-payment of derivatives
contracts (not traded through clearing exchanges) which contributed to the 2007/08 financial crisis.

In return for being protected from default, buyers and sellers pay a fee to clearing
exchanges. This protects traders from default by the other party and creates a small cost for each trade which takes place. This cost is small for real users of commodity derivatives like farmers. In fact, most farmers choose to use centralised
clearing rather than over-the-counter trading, because their whole reason for using futures contracts in the first place is to protect themselves from risk. However the fee represents a deterrent for financial speculators to buy and sell contracts exclusively as a moneymaking venture.

Commodity

A commodity is a type of good which is the same no matter who produces it. There is no difference in quality. Because a commodity is the same, it can be easily traded at one global price. For example, a tonne of copper is the same whether it comes from Chile or Zambia.

In contrast, televisions are not commodities as they can be differentiated by features, branding, size etc and therefore different models of televisions command different prices.

For most commodities there are markets where they are traded on the day and derivative markets where contracts are traded for future delivery of the product. In these markets, a single price is quoted for the commodity. The three main  categories of commodities are food, metals and energy (primarily oil and gas).

Commodity index fund A commodity index fund is a way for institutional
investors such as pension funds, insurance companies and mutual funds to put money into commodities. Commodity index funds put money into a range of commodities in fixed proportions by buying futures contracts and other derivatives
in them. Those using commodity index funds see commodities as a way to diversify where their money is held. They tend to put money in and pull money out due to factors unrelated to supply and demand of individual commodities and look instead to indicators such as stock and property market signals. This can play havoc with
commodity prices as it divorces their value from the actual demand and supply of the commodity itself.

Derivative

A derivative is a financial contract which does not involve the trade of any real product. It is ultimately based on the trade in something real, so its value is ‘derived’ from a real trade. A future is one form of a derivative contract. Derivatives
got more complex through the 1990s and 2000s as financial markets became increasing unregulated.

Futures contract

A futures contract is a contract between two parties to buy or sell an asset of standardised quantity and quality at a specific future date at a price agreed today.
WDM food speculation campaign

Hedge

A hedge is when someone seeks to reduce their risk to price fluctuations. It can be done in many ways. For instance, a farmer can use futures contracts to hedge against large falls in the price of the crop they are selling. They forego the
benefit of any increase, but protect themselves from a fall.

Hedging is also used by financial traders to diversify risk. Putting money into commodities is seen by many financial traders as a hedge.

Commodities can be seen to move in line with inflation, or in opposite directions to shares. Therefore, a trader can protect themselves against inflation, or a fall in share prices, by putting some of their money into commodities.

Hedge fund

Hedge funds are financial funds that put money into a wide variety of markets. They tend to have the fewest regulations applying to them of any financial institutions. They put money into all kinds of markets, including shares, government debt and commodity derivatives. Whilst they are called ‘hedge funds’ they do not hedge.

They tend to do the opposite. They put money into the riskiest activities as an attempt to get the highest returns. Methods they particularly use are borrowing lots of money to then trade with, short-selling and putting money into
derivatives. Hedge funds tend to be used by a small number of wealthy investors.

Over-the-counter derivative

An over-the-counter derivative is a derivative traded privately between two financial traders; at least one of them will usually be a bank. The bank creates the derivative in a specific way for its client. Because it is created in private, the
rest of the market does not clearly see what is being traded at what price. Also, over-thecounter derivatives can easily be defaulted on, unlike those which go through clearing.

Pension fund

Pension funds are institutional investors that take pension savings from individuals and governments. They seek to make a return with which to fund the buying of pensions for those paying into the fund. Pension funds are one of the largest institutional investors in financial markets, because they account for a large
proportion of individuals’ savings.

Position limits

Position limits place a limit on the amount of derivatives which can be traded in a particular market. They were created by US regulators in the 1930s to prevent excessive speculation on food commodities, whilst still enabling farmers
to use derivatives to hedge their risk.

Through the 1990s and 2000s, regulations in the US were weakened, allowing many speculators to be exempt from position limits that apply to them, particularly commodity index funds.

Short-selling

Short-selling is the practice of selling items on a financial market that have been borrowed from a third party with the intention of buying identical items back at a later date to return to the lender.

Traders normally undertake short-selling as a way to profit from falling prices.
For example, a hedge fund makes £10 by selling 10 shares for £1 each. These shares do not belong to the hedge fund but have been borrowed from an actual shareholder. A month later, the shares have dropped to 50p each and the hedge fund buys the 10 shares back for £5 and then returns the shares to their owner. In
this way, the hedge fund pockets the difference and makes a profit of £5.

Large amounts of short selling, for example of shares, leads to a large supply of shares on the market. This in itself can cause the price to fall. Short selling has been a major feature of the recent financial crisis, particularly in currencies,
shares and most recently in government debt in countries such as Greece.

However, it has not yet been as big a feature of commodity markets
where the main speculators (index funds) have been making money from rising prices.

Speculation

Speculation has many different meanings and uses, some of them contradictory. When we refer to speculation, we refer to financial actors putting money into food derivatives to make money, without any intention of buying or selling real food. This speculation on food contrasts with farmers who buy commodity derivatives to protect themselves from the risk of big changes in price. For farmers, buying food
derivatives is effectively insurance.

Food speculation videos

WDM is campaigning to stop food speculation

WDM campaign video with interviews from Kenya.

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speculation explained

Animation produced by our European ally World Economy, Ecology and Development (WEED)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpM9XxJ-vo4&feature=player_embedded

Stop gambling on hunger

Animation produced by the US Stop Gambling on Hunger campaign.

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derivatives could lower price of food

Investigation by the Real News Network looking at the role of commodity derivatives and how they push up the price of food. 

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firms blamed for food price hike

News report by Al Jazeera on how bankers bet on the price of food. Features an interview with our director, Deborah Doane.

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speculation fuels Mexico's tortilla crisis

News report by the Ecologist on how the price of maize is causing massive problems in Mexico.

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speculation = hunger

News report on MSNBC about Wall Street commodity speculation.

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Republic president tackles food speculation

South-South News report on food speculation.

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Talk: Food fight

Investigation on Russia Today. 

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and the frenzy in food markets

News report on the Real News Network. 

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Food speculation in the media

There is strong evidence that speculation exacerbated the last oil and food bubble. Speculation will fuel the next one too, unless meaningful speculative position limits are established.” 
- Sir Richard Branson, founder, Virgin Group

Our campaign has been featured in the media. Here is a selection of the coverage:

What Goldman Sachs should admit: it drives up the cost of food
the Guardian, 23 May 2013

A sunnier outlook for Barclays
the Independent, 26 April 2013

Exclusive: Britain running out of wheat as cold weather crisis hits farmers 
the Independent, 6 April 2013

Barclays rakes in up to £750m betting on food prices in just three years
the Daily Mail, 13 February 2013

Goldman bankers get rich betting on food prices as millions starve
the Independent, 20 January 2013

Cost of food 'not going to stop' rising, warns UK chief scientist
the Telegraph, 2 January 2013

Our food speculation campaigner Heidi Chow speaks on radio 4
the World Tonight, 1 January 2013

Banks making millions out of starving millions through food speculation
the Metro, 2 October 2012

Unholy trade of making millions out of misery
the Independent, 23 August 2012 

FSA 'lobbies on behalf of City firms it regulates,' claims campaign group
the Guardian, 19 June 2012 

Barclays makes £500m betting on food crisis
the Independent, 1 September 2012

Public Eye award singles out mining company Vale, Barclays
the Guardian, 27 January 2012

Act on food prices and hunger, economists tell G20
the Mail and Guardian, 11 October 2011

Mexico's poor suffer as food speculation fuels tortilla crisis
the Ecologist, 13 September 2011

It's time to get tough with the food casino
Globe and Mail, 4 August 2011

Giant grain firm buys up all British wheat in 'unprecedented' purchase
Bureau of Investigative Journalism, 30 July 2011 

The case for regulation of commodity markets
Progress Online, 13 July 2011

How hot money is causing a food prices commodity boom
Daily Mail, 29 June 2011

As food speculators make money, the world's poorest suffer
CNN, 22 June 2011

Food prices mean trouble for poor and politicians
Reuters, 17 June 2011

UN report calls for regulation to curb speculators pushing up food prices
the Guardian, 5 June 2011

Should food be a protected commodity?
the Telegraph, 1 May 2011

Protestors to target Barclays' AGM over food price speculation
BBC, 27 April 2011

Barclays food commodity speculation blamed for spike in prices
New Statesman, 27 April, 2011

Barclays faces protest over role in global food crisis
the Guardian, 25 April 2011

Food speculation: 'People die from hunger while banks make a killing on food'
the Guardian, 23 January 2011

In-depth research

WDM research

The great hunger lottery - WDM report showing how speculation on food impacts the poor, and what can be done about it.

Broken markets - WDM report showing that financial speculation has a clear impact on rising food prices and countering arguments to the contrary.

Barclays PLC and agricultural commodity derivatives - Report showing that Barclays Capital makes up to £340 million per year from food speculation.

Back to fundamentals (report) - WDM report explaining why position limits are needed to protect consumers, producers and businesses from the impacts of food speculation.

Back to fundamentals (briefing) - Policy briefing explaining why position limits are needed to protect consumers, producers and businesses from the impacts of food speculation.

Research by external economists and international institutions

The food crises: predictive validation of a quantitative model of food prices including speculators and ethonal conversion - Academic quantitative study finding that biofuels are causing a longer-term rise in food prices, while speculation has been responsible for the recent sharp fluctuations.

The relationship between commodities futures markets and food prices - Paper by economists Jayati Ghosh, Robert Pollin and James Heintz exploring whether greater liquidity contributes to more stable prices, and whether futures markets can affect food prices. 

Agricultural outlook 2011-2020 - Report of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation and OECD, which states that, "Almost all researchers agree that non-commercial participation in futures markets may amplify price movements in the short-term, even if they differ in their conclusions about other possible impacts."

The financialization of commodity markets - Report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) about the high increase in commodity prices accompanied by the growing presence of financial speculators in commodity markets.

Price volatility in food and agriculture markets: policy responses - Report by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) looking at volatility in commodity markets and what can be done about it.

Price formation in financialized commodity markets: the role of information - Report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on the lack of information in financialised commodity markets.  

Food commodities speculation and food price crises - Briefing note by Olivier de Shutter, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, outlining the regulation needed to reduce volatility in commodity markets. 

Placing the 2006/2008 commodity price boom into perspective - Research by the World Bank showing that commodity speculation may have been partly responsible for the 2006-2008 increase in food prices. 

Excessive speculation in agricultural commodities - Collection of writings on food speculation from 2008-2011 put together by the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy. 

The Hunger Makers  - Report from Foodwatch on how Goldman Sachs and other financial institutions are driving up the price of commodities through speculation.

Barclays PLC and agricultural commodity derivatives report

This report, written by Brett Scott on behalf of WDM, is an overview of Barclays' involvement in commodity derivatives markets, with particular reference to its involvement in agricultural commodity derivatives (food speculation). 

Derivatives come in three main types: Futures/forwards, options and swaps. In practice, a lot of the dealing on investment bank trading floors will be in ‘over-the-counter’ (OTC) derivatives, which includes forwards, swaps and bespoke options. Futures are slightly different, in that they are traded on regulated exchanges. All these derivative types can be based on different ‘underlying assets’ - e.g. derivatives based on shares, bonds and currencies, economic indicators, and a lot of other things. By far the largest global derivative market is the interest rate derivatives market, followed by currency derivatives, credit derivatives, commodity derivatives, and equity derivatives.

Barclays Capital commodities division is a commodity derivatives business, facilitating derivative markets in energy commodities (e.g. oil, oil distillates, natural gas, coal), industrial metals, precious metals, carbon emissions, and agricultural commodities. There are roughly 350 employees. Barclays describes the business as follows:

Barclays Capital’s Commodities division has expanded rapidly in recent years to meet growing customer demand. Our Commodities Traders build ‘trading books’ specialising in goods from energy products to agricultural assets, all over the world.

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Broken markets - How financial market regulation can help prevent another global food crisis

Broken Markets seeks to counter the arguments put forward by those sceptical of the influence of financial speculation on rising food prices. It shows how financial speculation has boomed, turning commodity derivatives into just another asset class for investors, distorting and undermining the effective functioning of agricultural markets.

It shows how these changes in the financial markets translate into changes in the price of food, and the devastating impact this has had on the world’s poorest people. It concludes by recommending urgent action to introduce new rules to limit the influence of financial speculators and bring transparency and stability to these out of control markets. 

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The cover or Broken Markets

The Great Hunger Lottery - How banking speculation causes food crises

In The Great Hunger Lottery, the World Development Movement has compiled extensive evidence establishing the role of food commodity derivatives in destabilising and driving up food prices around the world. This in turn, has led to food prices becoming unaffordable for low-income families around the world, particularly in developing countries highly reliant on food imports.

Nowhere was this more clearly seen than during the astonishing surge in staple food prices over the course of 2007-2008, when millions went hungry and food riots swept major cities around the world. The great hunger lottery shows how this alarming episode was fueled by the behaviour of financial speculators, and describes the terrible immediate impacts on vulnerable families around the world, as well as the long term damage to the fight against global poverty.

In the report we describe how the current situation came to pass, the risks of another speculation induced food crisis, and what specifically can be done by policymakers here in the UK as well as in the US and EU to tackle the problem.

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The great hunger lottery - how banking speculation causes food crises