Sign up to E-News
UK pollution will be responsible for 10 million climate refugees worldwide
28 November 2008
10 million people could be forced to leave their homes due to the UK's contribution to climate change according to a new report released today by the anti-poverty group, the World Development Movement.
The report also reveals that 30,000 new climate refugees could be created if Kingsnorth coal power station goes ahead. The report comes on the first of two days of protest against E.ON's Kingsnorth plans (Friday 28 and Saturday 29 Nov).
Carbon Evictions: the UK’s role in the forced migration of climate refugees reveals that:
- On current trends, an estimated 10 million people will be forced to leave their homes permanently by 2050 because of the UK’s contribution to climate change
- An estimated 30,000 people will become climate refugees if the new coal power station at Kingsnorth, in Kent, goes ahead.
- The poorest people in the world leave the smallest carbon footprint but are the most likely to become climate refugees
- Urgent measures by the UK government could still prevent tens of millions of people from losing their homes.
Benedict Southworth, director of the World Development Movement said:
"The effects that climate change will have on the world include more and worse cyclones; flooding; drought; and sea level rises that will force people to leave their homes. If emissions aren't reduced significantly in the UK, 10 million of the poorest people in the world will become homeless. Those people have done little to contribute to climate change, but they will suffer the worst consequences. This is a scandal and must be stopped.
"This is not a climate change doom and gloom story. Our hope is that this scenario can still be prevented, but our government must wake up and realise that we can't say we promise to reduce carbon emissions with one hand and give carbon intensive projects like the Kingsnorth coal power station the thumbs up with the other."
Atiq Rahman, a lead author from the IPCC has said that 35 million people could be displaced from Bangladesh coastal areas by 2050.
Ahmed Swapan, VOICE - a Bangladeshi activist organisation working on food self sufficiency and economic justice said:
"New coal power stations in the UK will impact on countries like Bangladesh that suffer the most from climate change but are not responsible for causing it."
The World Development Movement is calling for:
- Urgent reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in the UK
- Scrap plans for carbon intensive projects like a third runway at Heathrow, or Kingsnorth coal power station
- Money and technology from rich countries to help people adapt to climate change, including resources for climate refugees, and to help developing countries access clean energy and low carbon development
- A new international agreement that sets out the obligations of rich countries towards climate refugees.
Download a copy of the report at www.wdm.org.uk/carbonevictions
Ends
For more information, please call:
Kate Blagojevic
Press officer, World Development Movement
0207 820 4900/4913, 07711 875 345, Email:
Notes to Editors
Who will be affected?
One of the examples of climate related forced migration will result from sea level rises. In the table below, the World Bank has estimated number of people that will be affected by sea level rise (millions) 'Dasgupta, S. et al. (2008) 'The Impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis.' World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136. February 2007
Country |
1-metre |
3-metre |
5-metre |
China |
26 |
53 |
92 |
Vietnam |
9 |
22 |
32 |
India |
4 |
11 |
28 |
Egypt |
7 |
11 |
15 |
Indonesia |
2 |
9 |
18 |
Bangladesh |
1 |
5 |
14 |
Thailand |
1 |
3 |
8 |
Nigeria |
1 |
3 |
6 |
Philippines |
1 |
3 |
7 |
Myanmar |
1 |
2 |
6 |
It is also likely to be the poorest people who are affected, as they are likely to live in areas most prone to flooding, sea-level rises and drought because they can't afford to live elsewhere. They are also those who can least afford to move far, which will mean moving to less productive areas and where less land will be available, or rural to urban migration . This is likely to increase poverty for communities of already very poor people.
Where will displaced people go?
As there is no international agreement on where people who are forced from their homes by climate change will go it is hard to say with any certainty; but there will be five broad trends:
Internally displaced people
The vast majority of climate refugees will actually move to another part of their country. For example, China faces a huge number of people who will be forced out of their homes by climate change induced sea level rise, but it is unlikely that the majority of people will be forced to leave their home and their country. There is space within the country for people to relocate but the quality of the new lives will depend on the political will of the government to offer compensation so that people can re-establish their livelihoods.
People seek refuge in neighbouring countries.
In Bangladesh, there could be a huge humanitarian catastrophe, millions are likely to be displaced as storm surges, increased rainfall and rising sea levels devastate the land. Bangladesh is one of the most densely populated countries in the world, so it is highly likely that people will have to move across borders. However, India is already building a fence along its border with Bangladesh which will make migration more difficult.
Small islands states such as the Seychelles or the Maldives could cease to exist and all of the inhabitants will become climate refugees who will be forced to relocate to another country. The new President of the Maldives has recently said that he will consider buying land for people to move to so that they do not become landless.
People seek refuge in Europe
Although, the vast majority of people will move internally or to a neighbouring country, climate refugees will also seek to move to Europe and the UK to areas where they have ties, for example, Bangladeshi people could be drawn by familial ties to the UK, India and Pakistan
Migration in the UK and Europe
It is predicted that areas of south east England will be flooded due to sea level rises and Kent Country Council has already said that communities will have to relocate as flood defences become too expensive to maintain.
It is also predicted that as average summer temperatures in southern Spain rise to 32-34 degrees C, many of the 700,000 British people who currently live there could choose to return to the UK.
Methodology
- Norman Myers estimated that 200 million climate refugees could be created by 2050 if there is global warming of 3°C or more. This has been widely quoted included in the Stern report.
Myers, N. (2008) Environmental refugees: an emergent security issue. 13th economic Forum, Prague, 23-27 May 2005.
On the basis of current UK policies on climate change, if replicated around the world, we estimate that the world is set for around 4°C of warming. These policies are:
- a target to cut UK emissions by 80 per cent by 2050, but allowing an unlimited amount of this to happen through buying carbon credits from overseas rather than cutting emissions in the UK.
- support for allowing 50 per cent of EU reductions in emissions by 2020 to happen through buying carbon credits from outside the EU
- supporting and advocating an expansion in aviation, including more flights and runways at Heathrow and Stansted airports
- considering allowing a new generation of unabated coal power stations to be built in the UK
The World Development Movement has calculated that based on past, present and future emissions, the UK would be responsible for 5 per cent of CO2 emissions causing 4°C of warming. The World Development Movement estimates that the UK would therefore be responsible for creating 5 per cent of climate refugees; 10 million of 200 million.
VOICE is a rights-based, activist organization working mainly on the issues of food sovereignty, aid effectiveness, economic justice, and the right to information and communication, both in Bangladesh and on a global scale. By building a broader constituency of alternative voices to the ‘mainstream development discourse’ through research and public education, VOICE is taking a stand against unjust and undemocratic practices.
The World Development Movement campaigns to tackle the root causes of poverty. WDM believes that charity is not enough and aims to change the policies that keep the developing world poor. It is a democratic and politically independent organisation with 15,000 supporters and 70 local groups across the UK. For more information, go to www.wdm.org.uk
Digg
del.icio.us
stumbleupon
Print this page
